Market What If
Explore how later-today changes in benchmarks, currencies, commodities and yields could alter the market backdrop for five countries and crypto.
1. Choose your market
Capture the latest available observations. Their original timestamps stay visible; assumptions stay fixed until you reset.
Changes: −50% to +50%; yields: −300 to +300 basis points. These are tool limits, not expected ranges. Inputs remain in this page; they are not saved, put in links or sent to analytics.
What changes if the backdrop changes?
Start with real market observations, then change the drivers you want to explore. See the cross-market bias, the price arithmetic and the economic trade-offs together.
There is no trained price forecast here. A directional backdrop cannot tell you how many points an index will move.
Method, sources and limits
Move sizes matter. Benchmark percentage changes are averaged; for country markets, Bitcoin and Ether form a separate average. One percentage point of either average contributes one pressure point. Higher oil subtracts pressure for India's import-cost channel and adds it for UK/Canadian producers; higher copper adds it for Australian producers. The associated daily currency change has the same sign. A 10-basis-point rise in US yields subtracts one point.
These are explicit, equal-scale display conventions, not estimated economic sensitivities. Their sum gives an upward or downward bias; only a zero balance is neutral. Two usable peers and a current local observation when open are required. Local disagreement stays in the average. Pressure points are neither expected returns nor probabilities, and small balances can reverse easily. No forecast accuracy has been established.
Gold, volatility, US oil and US currency have competing broad-market effects: they enter level, change and currency arithmetic without an automatic direction. Regional gas and news remain context. Resource-producer benefits can coincide with higher costs for users. Daily FX, daily yields and market moves cover different periods; the score is a mixed-period backdrop, not a synchronized portfolio return. Missing drivers are listed, never filled with assumed rates.
Each benchmark keeps its original comparison reference. A 1% observed gain followed by an assumed 2% fall becomes −1.02%, not −1%. A 10% commodity rise combined with 2% more local currency per dollar becomes 12.2% more in local currency.
Open cash benchmarks need observations within 15 minutes; closed cash markets need the latest completed session. Commodity and volatility quotes use 15 minutes while open and at most 72 hours while closed, without certifying the last settlement. FX and yields use daily references with a five-calendar-day age limit; these are not intraday observations. Unavailable inputs cannot be replaced with examples.
ECB rates are normally published around 16:00 CET on working days and are for information, not transaction pricing. US Treasury yields are daily US context, not the policy rate of each country. All scenario values are hypothetical; no future source timestamp is created.
Evaluating Cross-Market Sensitivity and Macro Scenarios
Financial markets do not operate in isolation. Shifts in interest rates, energy commodity benchmarks, and major foreign exchange pairs ripple across equity sectors, bond markets, and regional economies. Scenario analysis provides a structured way to test assumptions without pretending to forecast exact prices.
Mathematical Formula
Scenario Value = Baseline Level × (1 + Shock% / 100) | Yield ± Δ Basis Points- Baseline Level: Captured real-market observation from current trading sessions
- Shock: Hypothetical percentage shift or basis-point adjustment applied
- Transmission: Observable economic channel linking driver changes to broader market pressure
Worked Example: Testing an Energy & Rate Shock
An analyst tests what happens if crude oil rises 10% while 10-year Treasury yields rise by 25 basis points:
- Commodity channel: Higher energy costs raise input prices for consumer and industrial sectors while boosting energy producers.
- Yield channel: Higher benchmark yields raise borrowing costs, which can exert downward pressure on interest-rate-sensitive equity valuations.
- Currency channel: Cross-border trade balance adjustments affect import costs and domestic purchasing power.
The scenario highlights where macroeconomic pressure accumulates across global sectors before actual economic prints occur.
Key Considerations & Practical Realities
A What-If calculation evaluates conditional sensitivity ('if X happens, what channels move?'). It does not assign probabilities to whether that shock will occur, nor does it guarantee specific outcomes.
Historical asset correlations can decouple during acute market stress. Assumptions that held true in calm environments may shift rapidly during liquidity crunches or policy transitions.
Global markets trade across rolling time zones. A cash market that is currently closed reflects theoretical repricing rather than executable intraday transaction levels.